My next 50 years...

To all, I don't want to turn this into "random international perspectives", and promise my next posting will be much closer to home, but I have spent much time (almost 50 trips) to Azerbaijan, which is a fairly new country (less than 15 years), and are still "struggling" with what democracy means, and the advantages to "checks and balances" in the day-to-day political process.

Here is a note that I wrote to my boss this week concerning a political referendum that was put up for a vote in Azerbaijan on Wednesday. The punch line is, that the referendum passed (almost 100%, surprisingly), and to-date, I have not heard any reports of broken knees....

************************************************************************************

To all:

Tomorrow will be an interesting day in Azerbaijan. Similar to the U.S., in the current Azerbaijani constitution, a President can have two 4-year terms. Current President, Ilham Aliyev, was re-elected (last fall) to his second term as President. Ilham replaced his father, Heydar Aliyev in 2003, who served as Azerbaijan president from 1993-2003 (he passed away in early 2004). Tomorrow, the Azeri voters will have the opportunity to change the constitution, allowing a president to be re-elected (without limits) to successive four-year terms. Since Azerbaijan became independant from the Soviet Union, they had felt that two terms was enough for one leader to hold regien over this country of 10 million (the capital is Baku). The measure, which requires only a majority vote, will very likely pass and effectively will make President Ilham Aliyev the Azerbaijan President for life, or until voted out or impeached (hard to imagine these events if you control everything from ranging from judges to the press, but print and media).

Here are some facts from Asim Alikishibayov, who manages my office in Baku:

1) The referendum up for vote is for the changing the constitution to allow any president to be elected more than 2 times (along with 27 other minor amendments and additions)
2) All registered voters are eligible to vote
3) During the pre-referendum period, different groups who either support and oppose referendum amendments were established. The ratio, however, was 5 to 1 in favor for supporting groups. There is no organized "opposition" party
4) The referendum will pass (arguably regardless of how many vote, or how they vote)
5) It is interesting to debate what would happen if President Aliyev were not allowed to run again;
* - Would another party gain control of the government?
* - Would the current ruling party (The New Azerbaijan party) change faces and policies?
* - Would the resulting power vacuum cause gridlock and chaos?
It appears we may never know these things.

In case it becomes relavent; President Ilham Aliyev does have a son (12) and two daughters (24, 20). Who knows, can Ilham remain president until his son is ready???? I'll bet the good folks in Baku are asking the same question!************************************************************************************

Good bye for now!